中国式产业政策引致产能过剩吗——基于中国工业行业面板数据的经验分析

Does the Chinese-Style Industrial Policy Cause Overcapacit——Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Chinese Industry

本文从产业政策的角度探讨我国产能过剩的成因,采用双重差分策略分别对中国鼓励类和抑制类产业政策与产能利用率的关系进行实证检验。研究结果显示,激励类产业政策显著提升了产能过剩发生的可能性,且这种影响具有一定的持续性;抑制类产业政策仅在短期发挥出化解产能过剩的作用,中长期的效果并不显著。另外,出口有利于缓和激励类产业政策的影响,行业中国有产权比重越大则越有利于提高化解产能过剩的政策效果。总体而言,本文的实证结果在一定程度上支持了当前我国产业政策引发了产能过剩的论断,也说明有效地化解和防止产能过剩应从政府直接干预市场为特征的选择性产业政策模式,逐渐转型为增进与扩展市场为特征的功能性产业政策模式。

From the perspective of industrial policy this paper will explore the causes of excess capacity in China. This paper empirically examines the relationship between the policies of encouraged and restricted phase-out industries and the capacity utilization rate using double difference strategy. The results shows that, encouraged industrial policy has led to the occurrence of overcapacity in the industrial sector,which has a certain continuity. Restricted industrial policy only plays the role of the dissolve excess capacity in the short term, while the effect for medium and long term is not significant. In addition,the export is beneficial to mitigate the effects of motivation types of industrial policy,and the state-owned property right is conducive to improve the effect of dissolve excess capacity policy. In general,the empirical results of this paper support the conclusion that China＇s industrial policy has led to overcapacity. To solve the problem of overcapacity effectively, we should shift from a selective industrial policy model characterized by direct government intervention to a functional industrial policy model characterized by the promotion and expansion of the market.