基于扩充化推拉理论的农村劳动力转移影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Rural Labor Transfer Based on the Extended Push-pull Theory

自改革开放以来,农村劳动力转移为中国经济增长贡献了重要力量,但近年来愈演愈烈的"民工荒"现象也反映出农村劳动力转移后劲不足的问题。因此,分析农村劳动力转移的影响因素,为农村劳动力转移扫除路径障碍具有重要的现实意义。基于扩充化的推拉理论,可将农村劳动力转移的影响因素划分为源自农村的推力、源自城镇的拉力和源自制度的摩擦力等三个方面,据此使用最小二乘法(OLS)和Praise-Winsten AR(1)方法进行计量回归,实证结果表明:农村收入水平提升、农业生产力水平提升、农地资源水平下降构成了源自农村的推力;城镇收入水平提升、非农化水平提升、城镇基础设施水平提升构成了源自城镇的拉力;但以劳动力价格扭曲为表现的制度摩擦力,也对农村劳动力转移产生了显著的阻碍。

Since the reform and opening up, rural labor force transfer made great contribution to China＇s economic growth, however, in recent years the phenomenon of ＂labor shortage＂ is a reflection of the problem of insufficient rural labor force transfer. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to analyze the influencing factors of rural labor transfer, which can help eliminate the obstacles of the transfer. Based on the extension of push-pull theory, factors affecting the transfer of rural labor force can be divided into three parts： the thrust from the countryside, the tension from the city and the friction from the system. Accordingly, using ordinary least squares （OLS） and Praise-Winsten AR（1） method to make econometric analysis, empirical results showed that： the increase of rural income level, the improvement of agricultural productivity and the decline of agricultural land resources constitute thrust from the countryside; the promotion of urban income level, non-agricultural level and urban infrastructure level form tension from the town; however, as the performance of system friction, distorted force price has significant obstacle to the transfer of rural labor force.