摘要
旅游经济运行监测与预警研究工作是建设旅游经济宏观调控体系、实现旅游经济平稳运行必不可少的科学基础,也是当代旅游经济学服务政策制定和产业实践、企业战略的重要研究创新。监测与预警模型是该研究工作体系的核心部分,涉及模型设计、指标选择、数据收集和处理、结果计算、科学检验与实践检验、持续应用完善和开展实证分析等主要内容。2009年以来的各季度研究结果表明,该模型设计和研究体系可及时、全面和有效地对我国旅游经济运行态势进行监测与预警,在旅游经济运行预警专项工作任务中取得良好的实践效果并持续运作完善,成为当前我国旅游经济研究的基础工程之一。
A tourism economic operation monitoring and early warning system can be considered the scientific basis of an economic macro-control system for tourism and the smooth operation of the tourism economy. It is also an important innovation of tourism economic practices. With tourism now enjoying a high number of consumers and its integration with a wide variety of industries, China has established a tourism economic system that has an increasingly important impact on both economic and social development. The development of the tourism economy and especially its macro-control system in China has led to the requirement for an economic monitoring and early warning system, and a greater exchange in international tourism research. Such studies will not only affect development practices, but also tourism economic methods and content. Research of this kind is typically based on monitoring and early warning models, including model design, index selection, data collection and processing, and the results of calculation and verification. In recent years, research has investigated monitoring and early warning systems in the field of tourism economics. Furthermore, the application of such research has been promoted by both government and non-government organizations and business consulting organizations. Such organizations include the "world tourism barometer" of the UN World Tourism Organization and world tourism economic data of the International Tourism Association. The U.S. Travel Association Data Center releases an annual travel index, monitoring the economic operation status of national and state tourism industries and predicts development trends. Some major tourism consulting agencies and large-scale tourism enterprises also regularly publish research reports and data on the entire tourism industry and specific industry economic and market conditions. Furthermore, they provide basis reports for strategic investors and business managers. Macro economy, industries, and tourism research of this kind were the basis for the research ideas and methods used in the construction of China' s tourism economic monitoring and early warning system. Following this direction, this paper focuses on the key part of China' s tourism economic monitoring and early warning system, constructs a theoretical model, and provides empirical analysis. The analysis of economic operations can be divided into the following categories: general (general judgment), market or demand, industrial or supply, policy and operating environment, regional, international, and other relevant aspects. This model determines four index systems, the market, industry, environment, and confidence of tourism economic operation, including the main indicators of all levels of the tourism economy. Furthermore, the model induces climate indexes such as the leading index, consistent index, and the lagging index. The determination of the early warning index of the tourism economy selects a number of important indicators from the leading index, consistent index, and the lagging index. Using data published in 2014, this paper conducts a systematic analysis of the main indexes involved in the model. The present research shows that the model is both efficient and comprehensive in its ability to monitor and recognize early warnings. Based on our model, we consider that the direction of any future research should be based on sustainability, openness, and theorization.
出处
《旅游学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期10-19,共10页
Tourism Tribune
基金
2008年以来国家旅游局旅游经济预警专项任务研究成果~~
关键词
旅游经济
预警指数
模型构建
实证分析
tourism economy
early warning index
modeling
empirical analysis