英国脱欧背景下中美汇率博弈模型的构建

The Building of Sino-US Exchange Rate Game Model while Britain Leaving the European Union

近年来,中美之间的汇率博弈愈演愈烈。英国脱离欧盟后,人民币贬值压力将加剧,这将对中美间的汇率博弈造成一定的冲击。基于英国脱欧背景构建中美汇率博弈的静动态模型,分析各自在不同情况下的策略选择,发现博弈的暂时均衡体现了双方政治力量谈判下的策略选择,最终还是取决于博弈行为所花费的成本以及国家长远利益的分配。我国应在不引发双方贸易战的前提下坚持独立自主的汇率调整政策,积极参与国际货币体系改革。

Exchange rate game between China and the United States is intensified in recent years. The chance for RMB depreciation isincreasing after Britain leaving the EU, and it will have a impact on exchange rate game between China and the United States. This paper aims to build the static and dynamic model under the background of Britain leaving the EU, analyses their respective strategic choices in different cases, finds the game＇s temporary equilibrium reflects the strategic choice under the political negotiations, which ultimately depends on the cost of game behavior and the distribution of the country＇s long-term interests. Therefore, China should adhere to an independent exchange rate policy under the premise of not engaging in bilateral trade war and participate in the reform of the international monetary system.