基于EKC和组合分解模型的常州市环境污染影响因素实证研究

Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of Environmental Pollution in Changzhou City Based on EKC and Combined Decomposition Model

根据常州市1993—2013年环境统计数据和经济数据,选取工业废水、SO_2、烟粉尘、固体废弃物四项主要环境指标,对经济发展与环境污染状况的环境库兹涅兹曲线(EKC)进行分析,结果表明:四类工业污染物的EKC曲线分别呈倒"U"型、倒"N"型、递减型及递增型。通过对环境污染进行组合因素分解,结果表明:规模因素是导致四种污染物排放量增加的主要因素,结构因素对四种污染物排放均表现出不同程度的约束作用,而技术进步对于SO_2与烟粉尘排放有一定抑制作用,对工业废水及固体废弃物的环境作用还有待加强。因此,建议常州市应大力推进循环经济,加快优化产业结构和加大环保技术投入力度,加强法制建设和制度创新,充分利用和发挥环境管理要素的作用,实现经济与环境协调发展。

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between economic development and environmental pollution of Changzhou city, and further put forward suggestions for the sustainable economic development to the government. Based on environmental and economic statistic data during the period 1993-2013, this paper chose industrial wastewater, SO2, smoke powder and solid waste as four main environmental indexes to examine the EKC hypothesis of Changzhou city. The results show that the four industrial pollutants exhibit inverted U-shaped, inverted N-shaped, decreasing and increasing curves respectively. Moreover, the paper adopts the combined decomposition model of LMDI and MRCI methods to decompose the environmental pollution. It turns out that scale effect is the main factor to the increase of four industrial pollutant emissions. Besides, composition effect has different constrained effects on four pollutant discharges. In regard to technology effect, it shows certain inhibitory effects on the emissions of industrial SO2 and smoke powder, while its environmental effects on wastewater and solid waste remain to be strengthened. Based on these results, we suggest that Changzhou government should give great impetus to the development of its circular economy, speed up the optimization of the industrial structure and increase its environmental technology investment. On the other hand, by making full use of the environmental management factors, the government needs to strengthen local legal construction and institutional innovation so as to realize the coordinated development of its economy and environment.