景德镇霜冻天气特征分析

Discussion on Characteristics and Forecast Methods of Frost Climate Change in Jingdezhen

使用景德镇市1971-2015年的霜冻天气观测资料,对景德镇市的霜冻气候变化特征进行统计学分析。结果表明:近45年,景德镇地区的霜冻日数总体呈现出减少的趋势,霜冻日数倾向率为-0.408/10a;景德镇市20世纪70年代霜冻日数出现最为频繁,占霜冻总数的27.2%,20世纪80年代霜冻日数次之,占总数的24.8%,20世纪90年代以及21世纪之后霜冻日数开始逐渐减少;景德镇市霜冻天气通常主要出现在11月至次年3月;近45年来景德镇市初霜日总体上呈现出延后趋势,平均每10 a推迟2.8 d;终霜日总体上呈现提前趋势,平均每10 a提前3.8 d;通过对霜冻出现的天气系统和单站气象要素特征分析,为霜冻天气预测提供了依据。

Based on the observation data of frost in Jingdezhen during 1971 -2015 ,the characteristics of frost climate change have been systematically analysed and the results are as following：In the past 45 years, the frost days showed an overall decreasing trend with a rate of - 0. 408 d/10a. In 1970 s,the frequency of frost days reached a peek accounting for 27.2% of the total number,followed by 1980 s with a number of 24.8%. After 1990 s frost days gradually reduced by time. Frost usually occurred mainly from November to March of next year. While some occasionally appeared in April and October, but appeared a less likely chance. During the past 45 years the first frost date has a delayed trend of 2.8 d/10a,while final frost date showing a overall trend in advance with the rate of 3.8 d/10a. By analysing the weather situation and the meteorological element characteristics, this paper also expounds the forecast method of frost climate change in Jingdezhen.