“十二五”东北区域经济及电力需求情况分析

Analysis on the Economy and Power Demand in Northeast Region for the "12th Five Year Plan"

通过对"十二五"期间东北区域各省区国民经济发展规划、用电量预测与实际发展情况的对比分析,表明受东北区域经济下滑、产业结构调整等多方面因素影响,各省区国民经济总量、用电量增长均较原规划水平存在一定偏差,个别地区增速下降明显。受此影响,各省区机组利用时间也出现了明显下滑,区域性装机盈余情况较为突出。在此基础上,提出了关于东北区域经济与电力规划的几点建议,包括:关注宏观经济发展模式对电力规划影响,重视电力需求预测,加快电力市场的建立与完善。

Through comparative analysis of national economic development plan, electricity demand forecasting and actual development situation of provinces in northeast region for the ＂12th five year Plan＂, showing that affected by the northeast regional economic downturn, industrial restructuring and other factors, the total amount of national economy and electricity consumption growth have a certain deviation compared with the original planning level, the growth rate decreased significantly in individual regions. Affected by this, the unit utilization hours of provinces and autonomous regions also appeared a significant decline, the regional installed surplus situation is more prominent. On this basis, this paper puts forward some thoughts on economy and electric power planning for northeast region, including attention to the impact of macroeconomic development model on electric power planning, pay attention to power demand forecasting, and accelerate the establishment and perfection of power market.