“丝绸之路经济带”背景下中国对哈萨克斯坦资本流动风险评价及预测

The Evaluation and Prediction of Capital Flow Risk from China to Kazakhstan in the Background of the "Silk Road Economic Zone"

从投资环境的稳定性、资本流动的合理性及金融市场的有效性三个层次构建三角模型,考察中国对哈萨克斯坦资本流动可能存在的风险问题。研究结果认为:中国对哈萨克斯坦资本流动的整体风险容易受到国际环境及哈萨克斯坦内部环境变化的影响,2008年以后整体风险开始上升。采用GM(1,1)模型对2015—2020年资本流动的风险状态进行预测,结果显示:未来几年中国对哈萨克斯坦资本流动的风险状态主要处于弱安全区,哈萨克斯坦的投资环境、资本流动结构、金融市场稳定性均存在不同程度的恶化,存在较大的资本流动风险。

The articles constructed the triangle model from the stability of the investment environment,the rationality of capital flows and the effectiveness of financial markets,investigating the possible risk of capital flow which china facing.The study showed the overall risk of capital flows was easily affected by the change of international environment and Kazakhstan internal environment,the overall risk begin to rise after 2008.Then using GM（1,1）model to predict the capital flow risk in 2015-2020 years,the results showed that the risk status of capital flow mainly remains in weak safety zone in the next few years,the macroeconomic environment,structure of the capital flows,and financial market stability of Kazakhstan have different degrees of deterioration,there exists great risk of capital flows.