基于突变级数模型的长江经济带50座城市科技创新能力测度与分析

The Measure and Analysis of S&T Innovation Capability of 50 Key Cities in Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on the Catastrophe Progression Model

系统评价长江经济带各城市的科技创新能力,将有助于深入把握长江经济带的创新能力格局。基于此,构建长江经济带城市科技创新能力的综合评价指标体系,运用突变级数模型对上海等50座骨干城市的科技创新能力进行测度分析。根据综合评价结果,可将50座城市划分为领先城市、核心城市、重要城市、节点城市与一般城市5个层次。从空间视角观察,江浙沪地区呈现以上海为引领的"多极均衡"空间模式,其余省份呈现以各自省会城市为中心的"单极突进"空间模式。一级指标方面,科技创新投入、科技创新产出与科技创新载体指标呈现高度分化特征,均倾向于向省会、直辖市以及经济发达城市集聚。在科技创新绩效方面各城市之间表现相对均衡,一些经济基础较薄弱的城市,由于其产出的边际值较大而获得较为良好的创新绩效。

The systematic evaluation of the ST innovation capability of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will help us to grasp the pattern of the innovation ability of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Therefore,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of ST innovation capability of cities along Yangtze River Economic Belt,and using the catastrophe progression model to measure and analyze the ST innovation capability of 50 key cities include Shanghai and other cities.According to the comprehensive evaluation results,the 50 cities can be divided into 5levels which are the leading city,the core city,the important city,the node city and the general city.Observation from the spatial perspective,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai area shows ＂ multipolar balanced＂ spatial pattern which is led by Shanghai.The remaining provinces show the spatial pattern of ＂single breakthrough＂ which take each capital city as the center.On the first level indicators,ST innovation input,ST innovation output and the ST innovation carrier indicators show a high degree of differentiation.The innovation input,innovation output and innovation carriers tend to be concentrated in provincial capitals,municipalities and economically developed cities,while the performance of ST innovation benefit of each cities is relatively even.Some cities with weak economic foundation get good innovation benefit because of the large marginal value of their output.