劳动力成本上升是否推动了产业升级——基于中国工业断点回归设计的经验证据

Whether the Rise in Labor Costs Pushed The Industry to Upgrade——The Empirical Evidence Based on China's Industry with a Regression-Discontinuity

以《劳动合同法》的实施作为工具变量,在模糊断点回归设计框架下运用参数和非参数估计方法,检验了劳动力成本上升对产业升级的作用。研究发现,劳动力成本上升客观上助推了中国工业的转型升级;相对于资本密集型产业,劳动力成本上升对劳动密集型产业的促进作用更为明显;因高技能劳动力供给能力和产业结构的异质性,劳动力成本上升对产业升级的影响在不同地区具有显著的差异。

Take the implementation of labor contract law as a tool variable, this paper tests the impact on industrial upgrading us- ing parametric and non parametric estimation method in a fuzzy Regression-discontinuity design when the labor costs rising. The em- pirical study found that the rise in labor costs has objectively promoted the transformation and upgrading of China＇s industry; Com- pared to the capital intensive industry, the effect is more obvious on the labor intensive industry; because of the difference on high skilled labor supply capability and industrial structure, there have been different effect in different regions where the industry is affect- ed by the rise on labor costs.