基于AHM法的海底输油管道运行风险定量分析

Quantitative analysis on operation risks of submarine oil pipeline based on AHM method

以某海底输油管道为例,选取渔业作业频繁度、海上交通流量、海水腐蚀、输送介质腐蚀、管道防腐保护系统失效、海底土壤、海水流态、地震、误操作、未定期检查、设计隐患和施工隐患等12个参数作为评价海底输油管道运行风险的主要指标,采用属性层次分析法(AHM)确定各指标的相对权重,对海底输油管道运行中存在的风险进行定量分析。计算结果表明:该数学模型简单,容易掌握,计算量少,不需要进行一致性检验及对矩阵进行调整判断,对多因素、多层次的复杂问题评判效果较好,评价结果既体现科学性、又不失主观性。该研究对海底输油管道运行具有一定的理论和实用价值。

Taking a certain submarine oil pipeline for example, this research chooses 12 parameters as main indexes to evaluate the operation risks of submarine oil pipeline, which are fishery operation frequency, maritime traffic, seawater corrosion, transported medium corrosion, pipeline corrosion protection system failure, seabed soil, seawater flow state, earthquake, misoperation, non-periodic inspection, hidden design and construction troubles. It applies AHM method to determine the relative weights of the indexes and carry out the quantitative analysis of submarine pipeline operation risks. The calculation results show that the mathematic model is simple and easy to grasp, and has the features of less calculation, no consistency check needed and no adjustment for the judgment matrix, better effect of evaluation for the complex problems with multi-factor and multi-hierarchy. Evaluation results reflect the scientificalness and objectivity. The study has certain theoretical and practical value to submarine oil pipeline operation.