阿尔巴尼亚的联盟抉择(1946-1961)——基于一种联盟理论的历史分析

Albanian Union Choice(1946-1961):Historical Analysis Based on a Union Theory

联盟是人类社会活动的一种普遍现象,针对联盟问题的研究也是国际政治中的热门议题。位于巴尔干半岛西部的国家阿尔巴尼亚,在1946-1961年内进行了三次盟友的变换,书写了一段罕见的小国联盟史,也为联盟理论研究提供了重要的案例。根据修正后的沃尔特的"威胁平衡"理论框架,可以认为,阿尔巴尼亚在15年内先后选择同南斯拉夫、苏联和中国结盟的复杂历史,实际上主要是受到制衡威胁、意识形态以及提供援助这三个主要因素的影响。自身的脆弱性使得阿尔巴尼亚需要依赖结盟的方式而生存。结盟关系的转变,实际上是应对不同时期制衡当时最大外部威胁的手段。由于霍查政权的稳固同意识形态紧密结合在一起,因此,在阿苏分裂和中阿结盟过程中,意识形态因素在某种程度上具有决定性意义。最后,能否为阿提供适当的援助也会对阿尔巴尼亚选择盟友产生一定的影响。

Atliance is a common phenomenon of human social activities, Research on alliance issues is also a hot topic in international politics. Albania, located in the west of Balkan Peninsula, changed alliances three times from 1946 till 1961, making a rather rare history of alliances from the perspective of a small country and providing an important case for alliance theory studies as well. According to the revised theoretical framework of ＂balance of threats＂ by Stephen M. Walt, this paper holds that the reason why Albania chose Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union and China respectively as its allies in l 5 years is influenced by three major factors, that is, balance of threats, ideology, and provision of aids. The fragility of Albania makes it hard to survive without alliance, and the shift of alliance relationship is actually used to balance the greatest threat in different periods of time. Since ideology is closely combined with the robust Enver Hoxha regime, it is of decisive significance to some degree during the split of Albania and the Soviet Union which then led to the alliance of Albania and China. Whether the alliance could provide appropriate assistance also exerts a certain level of influences on Albania in choosing allies.