考虑决策者行为的新产品开发方案选择方法

Alternative selection method for new product development considering behavior of decision makers

针对新产品开发方案选择问题,提出一种决策分析方法。在该方法中,以原产品成熟期的利润为参考点,基于前景理论,计算新产品研发成功情景下预期利润增量的前景价值和新产品研发失败情景下预期损失的前景价值,进一步地计算二者的决策权重,在此基础上计算各方案的综合前景值并对方案进行排序。最后,通过一个算例对本文提出方法的实用性进行验证。

Aiming at the selection of new product development p/an, a method of decision analysis is proposed. In this method, the profit of existing products in the mature period is regarded as the reference point. Base on prospect theory, the prospect values of the expected profit increment in the success scenario and the expected loss in the failure scenario of new product development are calculated, and the corresponding weights are calculated. Based on that, the overall prospect value of each alternative is calculated and the ranking of alternatives is determined. Finally, the practicality of the proposed method is illustrated through an example.