对外开放、金融发展与利益集团困局

Openness,Financial Development and Interest Group

对外开放对金融发展的影响机制蕴涵着金融改革中深层次的利益集团问题。本文基于中国贸易和金融开放对金融发展的影响机制,在区分金融发展的规模、效率与竞争指标基础上,运用2000-2009年中国分省数据对利益集团理论进行了间接和直接检验。结果显示,利益集团理论在间接和直接检验中都得到了较好的验证,即单独贸易开放或金融开放都难以撼动利益集团对金融效率和竞争的阻碍,只有同时推进贸易和金融开放,才可能削弱利益集团的垄断格局,提升金融效率和竞争力。虽然贸易和金融同时开放对金融规模有所抑制,但这种抑制效应与利益集团理论的本质内涵并不矛盾,而是反映了不同国家企业结构和金融结构方面的差异。总之,当贸易开放与金融开放同时推进到一定程度时,利益集团对金融发展将从抵制转为支持,这种支持对中国经济与金融改革至关重要。

The interaction between openness and financial development has a strong connection to in- terest group problem. This paper investigates the impacts of China＇s trade and financial openness on finan- cial development, and test the interest group theory. Different from the existing literature, we distinguish the size, efficiency and competition of financial development. Using panel data with 30 Chinese provinces during 2000-2009, we find that the interest group theory is justified both in indirect tests and direct tests, namely simultaneous opening of both trade and finance can pin down interest groups＇ monopoly and promote financial development. Although simultaneous opening has negative impacts on the size indicator of finan- cial development, the implication of the results is consistent with interest group theory per se, which re- flects different features of enterprise structure and financial structure in different countries. In summary, in- terest groups will shift their attitude towards financial development when both trade and financial openness reach a certain level, which is key to Chinese economic and financial reforms.