通用教练机大修费用的新维无偏灰色预测

New Information and Equal Dimension Unbiased Grey Prediction for Overhaul Costs of General Trainer

通用教练机大修费用预测是航校制定维修计划和评估维修工作的基础。在传统的灰色预测模型的基础上,利用新信息优先的原则,建立了等维新息(新维)无偏灰色预测模型,在每一步预测中不断推陈出新,更新原始数据,以某通用教练机大修费用作为原始数据,构建无偏灰色和新维无偏灰色预测模型,对大修费用进行预测。结果表明,与无偏灰色预测模型相比,新维无偏灰色预测模型的误差更小、精度更高,适用于通用教练机大修赀用的中长期预测。

The prediction of overhaul costs of general trainer is the basis of making maintain plan- ning and estimating operating costs of flying school. Based on the traditional grey forecasting model, as well as the new information priorities, equal dimension and new information unbiased grey fore- casting model is established. The newest data are gradually added while the oldest one is removed from original data sequence. Taking certain general trainer overhaul costs as original data to establish forecasting model to predict the overhaul costs in the future. The results show that, comparing to un- biased grey prediction model, the prediction of the equal dimensional and new information grey fore- casting model has fewer errors and better forecasting precision for long-term overhaul costs prediction of general trainer.