有限需求信息下供应链生产与订货的决策研究

Production and ordering decision-making in supply chain under limited demand information

研究由供应商与零售商组成的需求信息有限和生产不确定的2级供应链系统生产与订货决策问题.在供应商生产服从均匀分布的2级供应链系统,仅知需求期望和方差,未知具体分布时,考虑库存费用和缺货惩罚,建立基于最大最小利润准则的不同模式供应链绩效和决策模型.通过仿真计算,分析比较不同模式的供应链最优决策和绩效.结果表明,有限需求信息和生产不确定情况下,风险共担契约模式和集成模式的供应链绩效高于分散模式的供应链绩效,且集成模式供应链绩效最高.因此,供应链决策可通过优先采用集成模式,其次是风险共担契约模式来提高绩效.

Based on the limited production and ordering decision- demand information and production uncertainty, we study the problems of the makmg in supply chain system consisted of supplier and retailer. By considering the max-mini profit criterion and the condition of inventory cost and stock-out punishment, we establish the performance models and decision-making models of supplier and retailer under the known demand expectation and variancebut unknown exact distribution in two-stage supply chain system with the supplier production uncertainty obeying uniform distribution. We analyze and compare the optimal decisions and performance of different supply chain models by using simulation method. The results show that the performances of the integrated supply chain structure and the risk-sharing contract supply chain structure are better than that of the distributed structure under limited demand information and production uncertainty. Among them, the performance of the integrated structure is the highest. In a word, one can improve the performance of supply chain by adopting the integrated supply chain structure first followed by the risk-sharing contract structure.