深圳市交通运输与产业结构的协整关系分析

Analysis of co-integration relationship between transportation and industrial structure in Shenzhen

分析1994—2014年深圳的客运量、货运量、港口集装箱吞吐量以及同时期的3次产业产值分布情况,运用Eviews软件研究深圳市交通运输和产业结构的协整关系.研究发现,客货运量与第二和第三产业存在协整关系,港口集装箱吞吐量与第三产业之间存在协整关系.在10%的置信水平下,深圳市的客运量,货运量和集装箱吞吐量与第二和第三产业产值的关系为:客运量和第二产业产值之间存在单项Granger因果关系;货运量和第二产业产值之间存在单向Granger因果关系,第二产业是货运量的Granger原因;客运量与第三产业之间存在单项Granger因果关系,第三产业是客运量的Granger原因;货运量与第三产业之间也存在单项Granger因果关系,第三产业是货运量的Granger原因;集装箱吞吐量与第三产业之间也存在单向Granger因果关系,在25%置信水平下,集装箱吞吐量是第三产业的Granger原因.

Through the analysis of Shenzhen passenger volume, cargo volume, port container throughput and the distribution of industrial output values in three industries in Shenzhen from 1994 to 2014, we study the cointegration relationship between transportation and industrial structure using Eviews software. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between passenger/freight traffic and the second/tertiary industries, and there is a cointegration relationship between port container throughput and the tertiary industry. At the 10% confidence level, the relationship between passenger/freight traffic and the second/tertiary industries is as follows. There is one-way Granger causality between passenger volume, freight volume and secondary industry output value, among which passenger volume is the Granger cause of secondary industry output value and the secondary industry output value is the Granger cause of freight volume. And there is one-way ranger causality between passenger volume, freight volume and the tertiary industry output value, in which the third industry is the Granger reason of passenger volume and freight volume. The one-way Granger causality between the container throughput and the tertiary industry output value also exists. And at the confidence level of 25%, the container throughput is the Granger cause of the tertiary industry output value.