玉米价格波动与小麦、稻谷、大豆价格波动的相关性研究

Relativity study on corn price fluctuation and price fluctuation of wheat, rice and soybeans

玉米是农业供给侧结构性改革的重点,随着结构调减、去库存化完成,玉米产业现状有望不断改善。本文通过建立V A R模型,并进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解,研究了玉米价格波动与大豆、稻谷、小麦等粮食价格波动之间的关系。得出如下结论:玉米价格波动与其他粮食价格之间存在明显的格兰杰因果关系;玉米价格波动与其他粮食价格之间存在明显的相关性;各类粮食价格对其他粮食价格波动的贡献度不同,而且玉米价格波动对其他粮食价格的贡献具有重要作用。针对以上研究结果,本文提出供给侧改革过程中应注意结构变化对玉米供需及价格的影响,对玉米等粮食库存设立科学警戒线,以及加强市场监测功能,防范玉米价格波动对小麦、玉米和大豆等粮食价格所带来的风险。

Corn is one of the most important aspects of the reform of agricultural supply front. With the structure declining and reducing storage ,the present situation of corn industry is expected to continue to improve. Based on the VAR model, this paper studys on the relationship between the corn price and soybeans, rice, wheat, by using impulse response analysis and variance decomposition. The fol- lowing conclusions： The granger causality relationship is obvious between corn price and other grain prices. There is an obvious correlation between corn price fluctuation and other grain prices fluctua- tions. The contribution degree to other grain prices fluctuations is different. The contribution to the other grain prices fluctuation from the price of corn is important. Based on the results of study, this paper puts forward that we should pay attention to the influence on the supply and demand and price of corn by structure change during the process of the reform of supply side. We should prevent wheat, corn, soybeans and other grain price from corn price fluctuation risk by setting up scientific cordon for corn and other grain stocks, and improving the market monitoring function.