煤炭价格波动特征及发展趋势研究

Research on Fluctuation Characteristics and Development Trend of Coal Price

2012年以来,随着全球经济增长速度的逐步放缓以及中国经济步入新常态,市场对煤炭的需求持续下滑,煤炭价格不断下跌。2016年7月以后煤炭价格开始回升并呈现出强劲的上涨势头,如何看待煤炭价格短期波动特征及其长期发展趋势以及煤炭产业应该采取怎样的应对措施,既影响着我国煤炭产业的发展,也关系着我国能源安全战略目标的实现。本文深入分析了煤炭价格长期波动及短期波动的影响因素,进而采用H P滤波法对煤炭价格的波动特征进行了实证分析,并对煤炭价格未来长期发展趋势作了探讨,最后基于对煤炭价格的分析结论对煤炭产业的可持续发展提出了政策建议。

Since 2012, coal demand continued to decline and coal price were falling down with the global economic growth rate has been slowing down and Chinese economy has entered the phase of the new normal. But coal price began to pick up and showed a strong upward trend after July 2016. How to consider the fluctuations of coal price in short-term and the development trends of coal industry in long-term is essential to the development of coal industry and to achieve energy security strate- gic targets. This paper deeply analyzes the influencing factors on fluctuation of coal price, and em- pirically analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of coal price with HP filter method, then discusses the future development trendof coal price. Finally, putting forward some policy proposals which are beneficial to the sustainable development of coal industry based on the analysis of coal price.