污水流行病学方法评价大连市人群烟草流行率

Exploitation of Sewage Epidemiological Survey to Investigate Tobacco Consumption in Dalian

目的建立污水流行病学调查城市地区烟草消费的方法,为大范围烟草消费调查提供依据。方法选择大连市11个污水处理厂,采集和分析污水中烟草活性物质尼古丁的主要代谢产物可替宁的浓度,结合污水厂总服务人口数量和污水流量,反推计算大连地区烟草消费情况。结果污水中可替宁浓度为(0.77~2.82)μg/L,人均每天消费的尼古丁为(0.23~4.17)mg,平均值1.5 mg。应用蒙特卡洛方法分析烟民消费香烟数量,结果表明大连市烟民消费香烟数量95%置信区间为(8.8~28.3)支/天/烟民,中位数为14.9支/天/烟民。结论本研究数据与我国烟草调查数据显示出良好的一致性,表明污水流行病学方法可以用来研究城市地区的烟草消费量。

Objective To develop a method for the investigation on urban tobacco consumption based on the sewage epidemiological survey,and to provide a basis for nationwide study of tobacco consumption. Methods A total of 11 sewage treatment plants in Dalian were selected. The levels of cotinine（ the principle metabolite of nicotine）in sewage was used to explore the tobacco consumption in the population served by each sewage treatment plant.Results The levels of cotinine in sewage samples were from（ 0. 77 - 2. 82） μg/L. An estimation on consumption of nicotine was in the range of（ 0. 23 - 4. 17） mg/day/capita with an average of 1. 5 mg/day/capita. The uncertainty and variability were analyzed by the Monte Carlo method,which showed that the number of cigarettes consumed per smoker in the city was varied in the range of（ 8. 8 - 28. 3）/d with a median of 14. 9/d.Conclusions There was a good agreement on the level obtained from cotinine in sewage with the number of cigarette consumption investigated by the authors epidemiological survey. Sewage-based epidemiology survey on nicotine use may be a meaningful tool for the large-scale monitoring of tobacco consumption in urban areas.