2010—2014年南昌市水痘流行特征及聚类分析

Epidemic features and clustering analysis of varicella in Nanchang City from 2010-2014

目的分析2010—2014年南昌市水痘流行趋势,探索水痘的地区和年龄差异,发现重点人群,进一步探讨防治策略。方法描述2010—2014年水痘发病趋势,采用系统聚类法对其进行聚类分析。结果 2010—2014年南昌市共报告水痘发病9 098例,平均发病率为36.22/10万;男性(39.93/10万)高于女性(32.18/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ2=142.368,P<0.01);总体发病率上下波动。水痘不同年龄组、不同地区的发病率均聚集成2类。结论南昌市水痘流行具有一定的人群性以及地区性。学龄前和学龄期儿童为水痘发病的重点人群,加强水痘病例监测,及时处理水痘疫情,做好水痘疫苗接种,开展卫生宣传和健康教育,是控制水痘流行的有效措施。

[Objective]To analyze the epidemic trend of varicella in Nanchang City from 2010-2014,explore the regional and age differences,find out the high risk groups,and discuss the future control strategy.[Methods]The epidemiological trend of varicella was described,and the clustering analysis was performed by the system clustering method.[Results] Totally 9 098 cases of varicella were reported in Nanchang City from 2010-2014,with the average incidence rate of 36.22/lakh. The incidence rate in males（39.93/lakh） was higher than that in females（32.18/lakh）,and the difference was statistically significant（χ2=142.368,P〈 0.01）. The incidence rates of varicella fluctuated between 2010 and 2014. According to cluster analysis,incident rates of different age groups and region age groups were gathered into two categories.[Conclusion]The epidemic situation of varicella in Nanchang City is characterized by population and region. Preschool and school-age children are the high-risk groups of varicella. It is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of varicella cases,rapidly respond to the varicella outbreaks,implement the varicella vaccination,and carry out health education and publicity,to effectively control the varicella.