乌鲁木齐市吸毒者艾滋病感染情况预测分析

Prediction of HIV/AIDS infection among drug users in Urumqi City

目的预测乌鲁木齐市吸毒者艾滋病感染趋势,为艾滋病防治工作提供科学的参考依据。方法利用乌鲁木齐市2009—2015年吸毒者艾滋病感染率数据,应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,建立乌鲁木齐市吸毒者艾滋病的感染率预测模型。结果吸毒者艾滋病感染率的GM(1,1)模型为x1(k+1)=-211.846e-0.099k+238.176,拟合效果较好(C=0.167,P=1),利用模型外推预测乌鲁木齐市2016—2018年的吸毒者艾滋病感染率分别为11.00%,9.97%和9.04%。结论运用GM(1,1)模型模拟和预测艾滋病感染率在时间序列上的变化趋势较为方便适用。通过预测可知,乌鲁木齐市吸毒者未来3年艾滋病的感染率将逐年下降。

[Objective]To predict the HIV/AIDS prevalence trend of drug users in Urumqi,and provide scientific references for its prevention and control. [Methods]According to HIV/AIDS prevalence rates of drug users in Urumqi from 2009-2015,the predictive model of HIV/AIDS was established by the grey system GM（1,1）. [Results]The GM（1,1） of HIV/AIDS was as followed：x1（k＋1）=-211.846e-0.099k＋238.176 the fitting results is preferable（C=0.167,P=1）,the predictive results of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Urumqi from 2016-2018 were 11.00%,9.97%,9.04%,respectively. [Conclusion]The GM（1,1）model method is more convenient to predict the tendency of the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in time series. According to the prediction,the HIV/AIDS prevalence of drug users will decrease annually in the next 3 years in Urumqi City.