金融“逆全球化”了吗--且看资本流动、银行和披头士乐队

Financial “deglobalization”?:capital flows,banks,and the Beatles

这是本文作者2014年11月18日在伦敦玛丽皇后学院发表的演讲。作者重点讲了四个问题。第一,是否有普遍的证据说明金融正在逆全球化——特别是英国?她的回答是:有。第二,是什么推动了这种趋势?作者说明,全球银行资本流动大规模收缩就是祸首,这一点对于英国尤其重要。第三,又有哪些因素对国际资本流动特别是银行资本流动发生的种种变化推波助澜?国际银行资本流动似乎已经不再对类似的推动因素做出反应了,这与危机(即全球性风险)之前的情况不一样。最后,银行资本流动的这种逆全球化趋势对英国和货币政策有什么隐含意义?在此,作者提出了若干观点——其中有些很切中实际——比如,逆全球化会影响英国对于各种冲击的承受力、会使货币政策更有成效等。

This is the speech the author delivered at Queen Mary University, London, on November18, 2014. The author offers comments on four questions. First, is there broader evidence of financial deglobalization – especially in the United Kingdom? Her answer is yes. Second,what is driving this trend? She shows that a massive contraction in global bank flows is the culprit, and this is particularly important for the UK. Third, what is driving these changes in international capital flows – especially bank flows? International bank flows no longer appear to respond to similar drivers as before the crisis(namely global risk). Finally, what are the implications of this deglobalization in banking flows for the United Kingdom and monetary policy? A number of considerations– some of which could be substantive – such as affecting how vulnerable the UK is to different types of shocks and making monetary policy more effective.