摘要
随着世界由"深度全球化向去全球化"转型,以"本地含量学说"或"本地含量论"为依据的经济政策占据了中心舞台。结果,全球经济表现不佳。本文考察了过去25年多来全球化的轨迹,并考察了关于直到2030年的种种预测前景中世界将呈现的面貌。作者回顾了冷战的结束如何使"深度全球化"成为可能,这一时期如何受到了市场经济和代议制民主的价值观、美国的一枝独秀、日本领头的亚洲崛起、地区性经济和政治一体化逻辑的引导。本文随后表明,我们现在为何正在遭遇一种"去全球化的风险"——西方举步为艰,美国岌岌可危,中国崛起,"民族国家"作为全球舞台的主导角色得以复兴。目前这一动态的突出标志,是一种"人人为己"的逻辑,按照这种逻辑,各国都将重新调整自己的战略,变为保护主义和个人主义的行动。
As the world transitions from'Deep Globalisation to Deglobalisation', economic policies based on a 'Doctrine of Local Content'or'Local-Contentism'take center stage. As a consequence, the global economy underperforms. The present text examines the trajectory of globalisation over the past 25 years and what the world should look like in scenarios projected all the way to 2030. The author reviews the'Deep Globalisation' made possible by the end of the Cold War and how the period was guided by the values of the market economy and representative democracy, the prominence of the U.S., the rise of Asia headed by Japan and the logic of regional economic and political integration. Then he shows how we are now running a'risk of Deglobalisation'-the West in check, U.S. in existential crisis, the emergence of China and a rebirth of the Nation-State as the dominant actor in the global scene. This dynamics is now marked by a logic of'everyone-one-for-himself'in which coun-tries restructure their strategies into protectionistic and individualistic actions.
出处
《国际社会科学杂志（中文版）》
2017年第1期119-130,共12页
International Social Science Journal（Chinese Edition）
