支出冲击、赤字缺口与财政风险化解路径

Expenditure Shock,Financial Deficits and the Path to Solve Financial Risk

随着经济下行压力的逐步增大和经济结构性调整的客观要求,伴随着全面减税政策和刚性支出增加的双重压力下的财政赤字缺口将进一步加大,债务累积迭加带来财政风险的可能性加大,现有关于财政风险与债务研究的文献主要集中于相关风险评估以及预警指标体系的构建,其防范财政风险的手段和政策建议也主要集中在收支和债务管理上,鲜有文献从宏观经济变量的角度定量分析财政风险的形成和传导机制。本文从政府动态预算约束出发,通过构建VAR模型,分析了支出冲击对于赤字缺口、债务规模以及债务收益率的影响,研究结论显示,我国现阶段化解财政风险的主要手段为以收支调整和债务控制为主的数量型调整政策,且存在"超调"现象,而以债券收益率调整为代表的价格型调整政策效果甚微,基于此应进一步控制债务规模和加快利率市场化改革以完善市场价格传导机制,从而为化解财政风险开辟一条更为广阔的路径。

With the downward economy and the requirement of economic structural adjustment, the dual pressure of the comprehensive tax reduction policy and rigid financial expenditure further enlarge the fiscal deficit gap, which resulted in the increase of debt accumulation and financial risk. The existing literature about financial risk and debt mainly focuses on risk assessment and the setup of the warning index system with more suggestions on the balance of government budget and debt management, but without analysis from the perspective of macroeconomic variables. From the dynamic budget constraint, by constructing a VAR model, this paper analyzed the impact of the expenditure shock on financial deficit, debt scale and debt yields. The result shows that, in China the temporary countermeasure to resolve the financial risk is based on quantity regulation characterized by budget adjustment and debt control, with an ＂over adjustment＂ phenomenon, while the price adjustment tool such as bond yields hardly had effect. So we should control the scale of debt and accelerate the market-oriented interest rate reform to improve the transmission mechanism of the market price, then to open up a wider path for the solution of financial risk.