应对大宗商品价格走低引发的汇率过度波动风险

Response to the risk of exchange rate overshooting caused by commodity price drop

近期国际大宗商品价格剧烈波动，引发三类国家汇率产生不同程度波动。文章探究了波动后面的机理。得益国是大宗商品计价货币（一类）；损失的是主要大宗商品生产国（二类）；“随机”的是大宗商品的净消费国（三类）。在汇率波动上表现为一类货币与大宗商品是反比，二类是正比，三类是阶段性逆转。后两类要扭转“被动”，则应寄希望于获得国际计价货币的地位（货币国际化）。

The wild swings in international commodity prices recently have caused fluctuations in three types of currencies. The article analyzes the rationale underlying the fluctuations. The beneficiaries are commodity invoicing currencies （type 1）; the losers are primarily commodity producing countries （type 2）; and the randomizers are net commodity consuming countries （type 3）. In terms of the exchange rate fluctuations, inverse relation is presented in type 1 currencies and commodities proportional relation in type 2 and reversal by stages in type 3. The change in the passive nature of the latter two lies in the status of internationally pricing currency （currency internationalization）.