商业银行资产配置的偏好模式变迁及对债券市场的影响

Commercial bank＇s asset allocation pattern change and its effect on bond market

长期以来，债券市场的分析主要沿袭“增长-通胀”的分析框架，即通过分析增长和物价的走势来预测债券收益率的变化，但根据该分析框架得出的结论与现实却逐渐脱节甚至背离。鉴于商业银行是债券持有量最大的机构．且我国是一个间接融资为主的经济体，观察商业银行的资产配置行为往往比增长和物价信号意义来得更直接。

For a long time, the analysis on the bond market has mainly followed the analytical framework of growth-inflation, in which the changes in bond yield are predicted through the analysis on growth and price trends. However, the conclusion drawn from such framework has gradually lost touch with and even deviated from the reality. Given that the commercial bank is the largest bond holder and China is an indirect financing dominated economy, the insight into commercial bank＇s asset allocation behaviors is often more significant than the analysis on growth and price index.