分析师预测信息来源的新发现:会计师事务所

A New Discovery for Analyst Forecasting Information Sources:Audit Firms

文章通过检验券商与公司聘任同一家会计师事务所对券商旗下分析师预测行为的影响,研究了证券分析师的预测信息是否可能来源于会计师事务所。研究发现:(1)分析师更愿意跟踪与所属券商聘任同一家会计师事务所的上市公司,对其发布的盈余预测更准确,也更倾向于额外发布现金流预测。(2)券商与公司从非同聘会计师事务所变更为同聘会计师事务所,其分析师预测的准确性提高,反之则降低。分析师对与所属券商聘任同一家会计师事务所的公司在年报披露前最后一次盈余预测的准确性有更大幅度的提高。(3)同聘会计师事务所对预测准确性的促进作用集中在分析师跟踪少和收入变化大的公司以及非明星分析师发布的预测。文章的研究有助于理解同聘会计师事务所对分析师预测行为的影响,也有助于资本市场上的投资者更好地利用同聘会计师事务所的券商旗下分析师发布的预测报告,拓展了分析师预测信息来源的研究。

By examining how common audit firms in brokerage firms and listed companies influence the brokerages＇ analyst forecasting behavior,this paper investigates whether analyst forecasting information may derive from audit firms.It comes to the following conclusions：firstly,the analyst is more likely to follow listed companies having a common audit firm with his brokerage firm,and his earnings forecast is more accurate and he is more likely to issue cash flow forecast additionally for this firm;secondly,if the audit firms of the brokerage firm and the listed company change from the different to the same,it will improve forecast accuracy of the analysts in that brokerage for that listed company and vice versa;thirdly,the promotion role of common audit firms in brokerage firms and listed companies in forecast accuracy focuses on companies with less analyst follow and greater income changes and forecast issued by non-star analysts.It helps to understand the effect of common audit firms in brokerage firms and listed companies on analyst forecasting behavior,also helps investors in capital market to make better use of forecast reports issued by analysts in the brokerage firms which have common audit firms with listed companies,and extends information source research of analysts forecast.