基于Heckman模型的农产品购销商借贷需求行为分析

A Heckman Model Analysis of Credit Demand by Agricultural Traders

根据全国18家农产品批发市场1407家购销商的问卷调研数据,本文采用Heckman两阶段模型,对农产品购销商借贷发生率、借贷需求规模进行了数理分析。结论认为,采用法人组织形式、社会资本禀赋高的购销商发生借贷行为的可能性更高。经营产品需要经过储藏和初加工处理的购销商借贷规模更高,经营规模则与借贷规模呈现倒U型关系,并且,正规金融机构可提供的贷款数额大幅度高于非正规渠道。

Based on a national survey data of 1407 agricultural traders in 18 Chinese wholesale markets,this paper analyzed the probability of borrowing and loan amount by agricultural traders,and used a Heckman two-stage model for the analysis. First,it is revealed that corporations and traders with affiliation to trading associations are more likely to participate in the credit market than their counterparts are. Moreover,traders sell agricultural products with processing generally need higher amount of loans; business scale has an inverted u-shaped impact on loan amount,and formal loan sources are attempt to provide higher value of loan than informal loan sources.