台湾地区要素产出弹性与潜在经济增长率研究

The Factor Output Elasticity and Potential Economic Growth Rate in Taiwan

本文运用结构型时变弹性生产函数,将资本、劳动力和人力资本的投入结构纳入经济增长分析框架,对台湾1981—2014年要素产出弹性的变化特征进行估算,进而测算出台湾潜在经济增长率的变化。研究表明:台湾实际经济增长率主要取决于潜在经济增长率的变化,而潜在经济增长率不断下降的主要原因是劳动力和资本两种要素的增长率逐渐下降,以及技术水平和人力资本的产出弹性不显著。当台湾自身难以解决技术创新、劳动力就业和人力资本不足等问题时,应当考虑进一步放宽对大陆技术、资本以及高级人才入台的限制,从而促进台湾经济的可持续增长。

This paper uses the structural time-varying elasticity production function to take investment structure of capital, labor and human capital into analytical framework of economic growth, estimates the changing characteristics of factor output e- lasticity from the years of 1981 to 2014 before calculating the potential economic growth rate in Taiwan. The findings show that Taiwan＇s actual economic growth rate mainly depends on the change of potential economic growth rage while the main reason for the constant declining of the potential economic growth rate lies in the gradual decreasing of the growth rate of the two factors of labor and capital as well as the insignificance of technology and human capital. Therefore, the writer holds that as Taiwan finds it difficult to solve the technological innovation and the inadequate labor employment and human capital, it should consider fur- ther relaxation of restrictions on technology, capital and senior personnel that flow from the mainland into Taiwan so as to pro- mote its sustainable economic growth.