基于德尔菲法构建住院老年患者跌倒风险评估量表的研究

Study for the construction of fall risk assessment scale for hospitalized elderly patients based on the Delphi method

目的构建适用于住院老年患者的跌倒风险评估量表,提高跌倒风险评估的准确性。方法通过文献回顾、病例对照分析及小组讨论建立老年患者跌倒风险评估量表初级指标,采用德尔菲专家咨询法进行指标筛选及权重赋值。结果两轮专家咨询量表回收率均为100%,专家权威系数Cr分别为0.905和0.900,第二轮咨询专家协调系数(Kendall’W)为0.207,χ~2值为102.043,(P<0.001)。经过两轮专家咨询,共筛选出13个一级指标、40个二级指标。结论通过德尔菲法构建的住院老年患者跌倒风险评估量表具有较高的可靠性,可用于对住院老年患者进行跌倒风险评估,进一步验证其临床适用性。

Objective To construct a fall risk assessment scale for hospitalized elderly patients and to improve the accuracy of fall risk assessment.Methods Based on the literature review,case control analysis and group discussion,the primary index of fall risk assessment scale for elderly patients was established.The index selection and weight assignment based on Delphi expert consultation method were adopted.Results Table of the recovery rate was 100%.Expert authority coefficient Cr were 0.905 and 0.900 separately.The second round of expert consultation coordination coefficient（Kendall＇W）was 0.207.χ-2 is 102.043（P0.001）.After two rounds of expert consultation,a total of 13 primary indicators and 40 secondary level indicators were screened out.Conclusion The fall risk assessment scale of hospitalized elderly patients was constructed with high reliability,which can be used to assess the fall risk of hospitalized elderly patients and to further verify its clinical applicability.