山东省东部地区1961-2014年极端气温变化

Change of extreme air temperature in east of Shandong Province during 1961-2014

运用1961-2014年青岛、威海、烟台3处地面气象观察站的日最高、最低和平均气温数据资料,通过线性拟合分析法、累计距平分析法、M-K突变检验分析法、主成分分析法和Morlet复小波法,对世界气象组织发布的9种极端气温指数进行了统计分析。结果表明:(1)鲁东地区近54 a的极端气温冷指数呈下降趋势,极端气温热指数呈上升趋势。(2)鲁东地区近54 a的年、季平均气温以不同速率均保持上升趋势。位于沿海的鲁东地区极端气温变化与内陆地区的差异有2个方面,一是鲁东地区春温增长速率最快,而内陆冬季增温最快;二是鲁东地区相比内陆地区对全球增温的反应更强烈。(3)极端最高气温与极端最低气温的增长幅度有差别,它们之间呈现非对称性。(4)各项极端气温指标的突变时间主要集中在20世纪80年代初至90年代初期间。(5)极端气温指数变化周期规律明显,且以30 a为最稳定的周期,其次还有15 a和4 a的较稳定周期。总之,研究区的气温呈升高趋势,容易引发旱灾,应加强农业旱灾预防。

In this paper, through analyzing the daily extreme maximum, extreme minimum and average temperatures data of 3 ground meteorological observation stations at Qingdao, Weihai and Yantai during 1961 -2014, and using linear fitting analysis, cumulative anomaly analysis, Mann-Kendall method, principal component analysis and Mor- let complex wavelet method, we conducted statistical analysis of nine extreme temperature indices published by the World Meteorological Association. The results show that, in the east of Shandong Province, the annual extreme minimum temperature index presents a decrease trend, on the contrary, the annual extreme maximum index pres- ents an increase trend; and the annual and seasonal average temperatures keep a rising trend with different rates in the last 54 years. There are two different aspects of extreme weather variations between the east of Shandong and in- land areas of China, including that ： Firstly, the fastest growth rate of temperature is in spring of east Shandong and in winter of the island, Secondly, compared to the inland areas, the east Shandong is more sensitive to the global warming. The increased amplitudes of extreme maximum and minimum temperature are different and present asym- metry. And the sudden change time of the extreme temperature indices mainly concentrated in the early 1980 s tothe early 1990 s. The periodic change stable period and 15 area is easy to cause years and 4 years laws of extreme temperature indices are relatively stable periods. All in drought disaster, and agricultural drought prevention are very obvious, 30 years are the most all, temperature rising trend in the study should be strengthened.