基于TRMM数据的京津冀暴雨风险评估

Rainstorm risk assessment of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on TRMM data

对卫星降水数据TRMM 3B42-V7在京津冀地区的适用性进行了分析,利用2008-2012年的TRMM,并以致灾危险性因子、孕灾环境因子、承灾因子为评估体系,选取连续两日暴雨天数、暴雨日数、暴雨量均值、5 a的4月至9月降水季年值、坡度及综合GDP等6项指标,采用快速聚类方法对京津冀暴雨风险进行了评估。结果表明:(1)高分辨率的TRMM卫星数据能较好地反映京津冀地区的真实降雨特征,对暴雨事件的判断及降水量值误差控制良好。(2)聚类分析将整个研究区域分为4个子类:第1,2类暴雨风险较低,第3,4类暴雨风险较高;京津冀中部东北-西南方向及其东南向延伸的大部分地区为暴雨风险高的区域,应注重防范由暴雨引发的山地灾害及城市内涝等灾害。

This paper analyzes applicability of satellite precipitation data TRMM3B42-V7 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Using TRMM data during 2008 -2012, and taking hazard-formative factor, hazard-pregnent evironmental factor and hazard-affected factor as assessment system, the paper assesses rainstorm risk in Beijing-Tianjn-Hebei re- gion with rapid cluster method and based on 6 indices： the days with continuous two days rainstorm, rainstorm days, average rainstorm amount, yearly precipitation from April to September in five years, slope and comprehen- sive GDP. The results show that ： （ 1 ） TRMM satellite data with high resolution may reflect true feature of rainfall in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region better, and has a good judgement on the rainstorm event and precipitation error con- trol. （2） Cluster analysis divides the whole study area into four sub-kinds, rainstorm risk in the first and the second kind is lower and that in third and fourth kinds are higher. The Northeast-southwest direction of Beijing-Tianjin-He- bei region and its stretch area in southeast direction are high rainstorm risk areas, in where attention shoud be paid to the mountain disasters and city waterlogging disaster triggered by rainstorms.