我国西北地区城市群水资源承载力评价研究

Empirical Analysis of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity of the Urban Agglomerations in the Northwest China

水是区域经济社会发展不可或缺的资源,同时也是城市形成和发展的最基础条件,一定程度上决定了区域的经济发展质量与规模。该文从经济、社会、水资源、生态环境四个方面构建城市群水资源承载力评价指标体系,运用基于熵权的集对分析法对我国西北地区城市群水资源承载力进行综合评价。结果表明:2006—2014年我国西北地区城市群水资源承载力不断提升,除克拉玛依、吐鲁番外,群内其余城市水资源承载力均有所改善;关中—天水、兰白西城市群水资源承载力较高,水资源条件较好但经济社会条件较差,水资源有可开发空间,经济社会发展潜力较大;酒嘉玉、银川平原、天山北坡城市群水资源承载力较低,水资源条件较差,而经济、社会条件相对较高,在经济社会发展过程中需重点关注水资源的可持续开发利用问题。

Water resources is indispensable to regional economic and social development. It is also the most basic condition for urban social formation and development. To a certain extent, the quality and scale of economic development relies on the water resources. Based on factors of economy,society, water resources, ecological environment, we set up a system about urban agglomeration of water resources carrying capacity. The paper applies the method of set pair analysis （SPA） to make comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of urban agglomerations in the northwest China along the Silk Road Economic Belt. Research results show that water resource carrying capacity of urban agglomeration in northwest China has improved from 2006 to 2014,with the exception of Karamay and Turpan. The water resources carrying in the urban agglomeration of Guanzhong-Tianshui and Lanbaixi with rich water resources and relatively poor social-economic conditions was better than other cities. There is room for development of water resources and great potential for economic and social development. The water resources carrying capacities of the urban agglomeration in Yinchuan Plain and the economic belt of Tianshan North-Slope are weak and the water resources of these urban agglomerations are poor,while the economic and social conditions are relatively high. Therefore the sustainable development and utilization of water resources should be paid great attention to in the process of economic and social development.