关于我国外汇储备下降过快的原因及合理规模的研究

Research on the reasons for the rapid decline of China's foreign exchange reserves and its reasonable scale

人民币贬值预期以及连续贬值的趋势导致金融账户出现高位逆差,是我国近两年外汇储备下降的主要原因。本文估算近中期我国外汇储备的适度规模在1.4万亿至2.6万亿美元的区间内。发达国家货币政策分化导致金融市场不稳定因素增多,建议当前亟需加强人民币汇率波动的市场预期管理,并考虑适当放慢资本项目可兑换步伐,审慎稳健推进汇率市场化和人民币国际化,积极防范短期大规模资本频繁跨境流动对我国经济发展、汇率和外汇储备造成较大冲击,同时坚持引进外资和对外投资并重的宏观经济政策。

RMB's devaluation expectations as well as the trend of continuous depreciation causing the financial accounts to have a high deficit are the main reasons for the decline in China's foreign exchange reserves in the past two years.Based on national conditions,this paper estimates themoderate scale of China's foreign exchange reserves is in the range of $1.4 trillion to $2.6trillion.In view of the current poor international economic situation,and differentiation of monetary policy in developed countries leading to financial market instability,we recommend that the current urgent need is to strengthen the market expectations of management of RMB exchange rate fluctuations,consider to slow down the pace of capital account convertibility,prudently promote the exchange marketization and the internationalization of the RMB,and actively prevent the short-term large-scale cross-border flows of capital frequently to have a big impact on China's economic development and foreign exchange rates and reserves,and insist on the macroeconomic policy of both absorbing foreign capital and foreign investment.