产业发展模式、城市规模协同发展与城市经济绩效提升——基于空间计量的实证研究

Industry Development Patterns,Coordinated Development of City Size and Urban Economic Performance——Empirical Research Based on Spatial Econometric

基于2003~2013年中国277个地级及以上城市统计数据,运用空间面板计量模型实证分析产业发展模式、城市规模对城市经济绩效的协同影响,估计城市规模约束下专业化和多样化的边际收益、与城市专业化或多样化经济相适应的最优城市规模,以及专业化经济的空间溢出范围。研究发现:(1)随着城市规模的扩大,城市产业发展模式应由专业化向多样化转变,多样化对经济效率提升的门槛规模是129万人;(2)随着城市规模扩大,经济绩效呈现倒U型结构,而城市规模增大的边际收益随专业化向多样化转变和多样化水平的提高而增加;(3)专业化具有显著的跨区域空间外部性,空间溢出效应在100千米和400千米时较大。

This paper constructs a comprehensive theoretical model to analyze the synergy effects of industry developmentpatterns and city size on urban economic performance. Based on urban panel data from 2003 to 2013 in China, it estimatesthe marginal benefit of specialization and diversification under a constraint of urban scale, the optimal city size for a givenlevel of specialization or diversification, and the spillover range of specialization. It finds that ： only when a city scale sur-passes 129 million can diversification pattern enhance economic performance ; as the population size increases, the economicperformance experiences an inverted U structure and the marginal revenue of urban scale increases as the development pat-tern shift from specialization to diversification; the improvement of specialization index of industry shows positive spatialspiUover on the industrial efficiency of surrounding cities, and this spatial spillover performs more strongly around 100 kilo-meters and 400 kilometers.