上海市奉贤区2015年秋季稻麦收种严重延误的气象因子分析及避灾对策

Analysis of meteorological factors for severe delay of rice harvest and wheat sowing in autumn of 2015 in Fengxian,Shanghai and disaster prevention countermeasures

根据上海市奉贤区2011—2015年水稻生育期观测资料、2014—2015年水稻收割、小麦播种进度统计资料和同期降水、气温、日照时数等气象要素观测资料,分析了该区夏秋季异常气候对水稻生育期及稻麦收种的影响。结果表明:2015年奉贤区夏秋季水稻生长期间积温偏少、雨量偏多,造成水稻生育期延迟7—10 d,导致水稻成熟高峰期刚好与持续连阴雨天气相遇,是水稻收割严重延误和小麦无法播种的主要原因。水稻成熟期随移栽至成熟期间≥10℃有效积温增加(减少)、移栽期提早(推迟)呈提早(延迟)变化趋势。迟栽、收割时间对水稻产量具有较大的影响。据此,从水稻安全生产和种植机械化方面考虑,提出了针对异常气候的避灾对策,为政府和相关部门提供参考。

According to the observation data of rice growth period in 2014--2015, the rice harvest, wheat sowing schedule in 2011--2015 and the corresponding meteorological factors observation data of precipitation, temperature, sunshine duration in Fengxian District, Shanghai, the influence of abnormal climate in summer and autumn on rice growth period, rice harvest and wheat sowing was analyzed. The results showed that the accumulated temperature was less and the rainfall was too much during the rice growth period in summer and autumn of 2015, resulting in 7--10 d delay of rice growth period and the meeting of the peak of rice mature period and the continuous rainy weather. This was the main reason for the severe delay of rice harvest and the failure of wheat sowing. The rice mature period predated （delayed） with the increase （decrease） of effective accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃ and the advance （delay）of transplanting time during transplanting period to mature period. Late planting and harvesting time had great influence on rice yield. According to the above, this paper puts forward the countermeasures to avoid the abnormal climate from the aspects of safe production of rice and planting mechanization, and provides reference for the government and relevant departments.