四川盆区近50年的水稻气候资源变化特征

Change Characteristics of Rice Climate Resources of Past 50 Years in Sichuan Basin Area

为四川盆区水稻生产布局、品种选择应对气候变化的影响提供科学依据,利用四川盆区105个气象观测站1961—2012年的观测资料,采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检测和Morlet小波分析方法分析四川盆区水稻气候资源的空间分布及变化特征。结果表明:1)水稻生长季热量和日照资源,由东南向西北递减;降水量盆中偏少,由盆中向盆地边缘增加。2)稳定通过12℃初日呈提前趋势,22℃终日呈推迟趋势,水稻安全生长季天数和积温呈增加趋势,日照时数和降水量都呈减少趋势。3)水稻气候资源的年际变化具有明显的周期性,但不同要素的周期性不同。稳定通过12℃初日存在18~20a的周期变化,22℃终日存在4~6a、8~12a的周期变化,水稻安全生长季天数和积温具有10a左右、18a左右的周期变化,日照时数有5a左右和25a左右的周期变化,降水量有8a和20a左右的周期变化。4)水稻气候资源各要素除降水量之外,都有比较明显的突变性,但不同要素的突变点有所不同。稳定通过12℃初日的突变点在2000年,22℃终日的突变点在1995年,水稻安全生长季天数、积温和日照时数突变点分别为1999年、1999年和1980年,突变性都较强。

In order to provide a science-based reference for decision-making of rice product in responding to climate changes in Sichuan Basin, a research was conducted, in which GIS technology, the linear trend method, Mann-Kendall mutation detection and Morlet wave analysis were used to make a detailed study of spatial distribution and climate variation, based on the data of 105 meteorological observation stations of Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2012. Results： 1） The heat and sunshine resources of rice growing season decreased from southeast to northwest, and the precipitation was less in the basin, and increased from the basin to the edge of the basin. 2） The start date of 12℃ showed an early trend, the end date of 22℃ showed a delay trend, the number of days and accumulated temperature of rice safety growth season showed an increasing trend, sunshine hours and precipitation were of decreasing trends. 3） Inter annual variability of rice climate resources had obvious periodicity, but there were different variation periods for different elements. Such as 18-20 year cycle time for 12℃ beginning date, and 4-6 year and 8-12 year cycle time for 22℃ ending date, about 10 year and 18 year for the days and accumulated temperature of security growing season of rice respectively, and 5 year and 25 year for sunshine and 8 year and about 20 year for rainfall. 4） Except precipitation, other elements of climate resources of rice had obvious mutation, but the different mutations point for different elements. The mutations point of beginning date of 12℃ was in 2000, the ending date of 22℃ was in 1995, the days and accumulated temperature and sunshine was in 1999, 1999 and 1980 respectively, and mutations were more strong.