基于演化博弈的乳制品供应链主体质量保障策略分析

An Evolutionary Game Analysis of the Quality Guarantee Strategies in Dairy Supply Chain

我国原料乳生产模式仍以散户和小规模模式为主,且原料乳收购环节的质量控制措施有待完善,这些因素不仅影响原料乳质量水平的提高,同时也制约着我国乳制品行业的发展。文章基于奶农与乳制品企业非对称质量保障行为的演化博弈模型,分析了不同条件下奶农与乳企质量保障行为的动态演化过程;研究结果表明,系统具有多种演化路径,小区养殖成本与散养成本差额是影响最终演化稳定策略的重要因素;在此基础上,进行数值仿真模拟并提出相关政策建议。

Nowadays, raw milk is mainly supplied China but the quality control in the purchase link by smallholder dairy farmers or small-scale feeding bases in of raw milk proves to be insufficient. This is a hindrance to raw milk quality control and the dairy industry development in China. Based on an asymmetrical evolutionary game model, this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution process of quality guarantee behaviors on the part of dairy farmers and dairy enterprises under different conditions. The results show that the evolution of system has multiple equilibriums, and the evolutionary stable strategies are largely affected by the cost differences be- tween scatter-feed and plot-breeding. Finally, some stimulation-based policy recommendations are proposed.