云南省入境旅游成长规律及时空演化分析

Study on the growth regularity and spatial temporal evolution of inbound tourism in Yunnan

探讨云南省入境旅游客流的成长规律及时空演化过程,为云南省入境旅游业可持续发展提供参考。利用入境旅游流流质指数与游客密度优势指数的匹配度演化模型,分析云南省及各地州市入境旅游流游客密度优势指数与流质成长过程及匹配度的时空演化。结果表明:入境旅游流游客密度优势指数和流质的成长过程大致以2004年为截点,分为前期质优量弱,后期质弱量优的2个阶段;其成长演变特征可以概括为整体降低演变型、整体增长演变型和轻微波动演变型;入境旅游流游客密度优势指数与流质的匹配度整体上正逐步向良性转化,偏离型或双低型发展的地州市演化为同步双高型成为未来区域旅游客流成长演化的理想趋势和重点主攻方向。

To study on the growth law of inbound tourism flow and its spatial and temporal evolution,is to promote the development of tourism industry in Yunnan province,to enhance the level of development and provide a reference for regional coordinated development.We analyzed the density of tourists and fluid advantage index and inbound tourism flows in the growth process and the matching degree of space-time dynamic evolution,by using the matching degree evolution model of liquid index and density of tourists inbound tourism flow advantage index.Results show：2004 was the watershed of the growth process of the tourist density advantage index and fluidity of the inbound tourism flow,and it was divided into 2 stages,of which the previous period was high quality and low quantity,and the later period was low quality and high quantity; The trend of its development and evolution can be characterized as reduced evolution,overall growth evolution with wave shape; The tourist density advantage index and quality of the inbound tourism flow matching degree on the whole is gradually transformed to the benign direction; Deviation or double low development of city evolution for synchronous double high ideal become the future trend and focus of regional tourism passenger flow growth in the main direction of evolution.