安徽省用水红线目标约束下用水强度降幅多情景模拟与分析

Multi-scenario simulations and analysis on the decreasing amplitudes of water use strength in Anhui under the constraint of water use red line goal

探索安徽省用水红线目标约束下用水强度降幅,对新常态下制定协调经济社会发展与水资源可持续利用政策具有参考、启示意义。运用IPAT模型,模拟了用水红线目标约束下全面建成小康社会政治要求情景、规划情景、社科院预测情景的安徽省2020年用水强度降幅。结果表明:1)若用水总量维持2015年水平,3种情景下,万元GDP水耗降幅临界值分别为6.10%、11.27%、5.79%;2)用水红线目标约束下,3种情景万元GDP水耗年均降幅分别为7.38%、12.48%、7.07%,分别高出临界值1.28、1.21、1.28个百分点;3)3种情景下,2020年安徽省万元GDP水耗分别降至89.41m3、67.36m3、90.92m3,与2015年相比,降幅分别达31.84%、48.65%、30.69%。基于研究结果,从实施创新驱动与优化产业结构等方面,提出了有利于用水红线目标实现的政策路径。

The investigation on the decreasing amplitude of water use strength under the constraint of water use red line goal will be of importance reference and enlightening significance to making the sus- tainable water use policies for a harmonious economic and social development under this new normal condition. Using IPAT model, the decreasing amplitudes of Anhui＇ s water use strengths in 2020 under three scenarios （ namely, the political requirements with the policy of building a comprehensive well - off society, planning scenario and the predictions by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences） under the constraint of water use red line goal were simulated respectively. Results reveal that ： （ 1 ） if the total water consumption maintain at the level in 2015, the critical values of water consumption decreasing amplitudes per ten thousand GDP under these three scenarios were 6.10%, 11.27% and 5.79%, respectively; （2） under the goal constraint of water use red line, the annual average decreasing ampli- tudes of water consumption per ten thousand GDP under these three scenarios were 7.38%, 12.48%and 7.07% , respectively, which exceeded the critical value byl. 28% , 1.21% and I. 28% , respec- tively; （3）under these three scenarios, Anhui＇ s water consumption per ten thousand GDP in 2010 were reduced to 89.41 m3, 67.36 m3and 90.92 m3 , respectively, with the decrease of 31.84% ,48. 65% and 30.69%, respectively. Finally, based on the simulation results, the policies that contribute to the achievement of water use red line goal were proposed from the aspects of implementing innovation -driving policies and optimizing industrial structure.