企业周期性成长与股价变化一致性研究

Research on the Consistency between Firm Periodic Growth and Stock Prices Change

本文以部分A股上市企业为样本,首先,从财务角度以5年为一个周期来衡量其在每5年周期内的成长性,构建出由扩张能力、盈利能力、安全边际、竞争力边际和运营能力等5类指标构成的周期性成长评价模型;然后,研究了各指标与股价5年的年均增长率之间的关系。发现股价增长率受到企业周期性扩张能力、安全边际、盈利能力的显著影响。

This paper uses samples of hsted companies in the A-share stock market, and evaluates the five-year period growth abilities based on a new five-dimensional evaluation model including expansion abihty, profitability, safety margin, competition margin and operational ability. The relation between the five-year average rise rates of the stock prices and the five dimensions in the above evaluation model is analyzed. It is found that the periodic expansion ability, profitability and safety margin play an important role in determining the average rise rates of the stock prices while the other two factors, competition margin and operational ability, have minor influence.