摘要
为研究非机动车在城市交叉口发生交通冲突的特性,根据呼和浩特市某典型交叉口的实际非机动车运行特点,对统计时段内单位时间某进口道直行非机动车、右转机动车和当量小汽车到达数与相应的机非冲突次数进行一元和多元回归分析。综合考虑并归一化冲突距离、冲突速度和冲突角度对冲突严重程度的影响,建立非机动车冲突严重程度模型,以反映非机动车冲突严重程度。结果显示,在9个一元回归模型中,当量小汽车到达数与冲突次数拟合的二次多项式对冲突的预测准确率最高,为85.3%;在4个多元回归模型中,直行非机动车和当量小汽车到达数与冲突次数的回归方程的预测准确率最高,为92.4%,对非机动车冲突次数的预测效果最好。所建立的非机动车冲突严重程度模型可用于衡量实际发生的交通冲突的严重程度。
For the sake of studying the characteristics of traffic conflicts involving non-motor vehicles at city road intersections, univariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted between the numbers of straight-go non-motor vehicles,right-turn motor vehicles,equivalent cars after converting and the number of conflicts of motors with non-motor vehicles per unit time in the observation time according to actual operation characteristics of non-motor vehicles at a typical intersection in Hohhot. In order to reflect the severity of conflicts involving non-motor vehicles comprehensively and accurately,severity models considering and normalizing the influences of distance,angle and speed of conflict on the severity were built.Results show that the quadratic polynomial fitted with the number of straight-go non-motor vehicles and the number of conflicts has the best predictive performance among the 9 univariate regression models and its forecast accuracy of conflicts number is 85.3%,that the function fitted with the number of straight-go nonmotor vehicles,the number of equivalent cars and the number of conflicts has the best predictive performance among the 4 multivariate regression models and its forecast accuracy is 92.4%,so it is the best forecast function of conflicts number,and that the established severity models for non-motor vehicle conflicts can be used to measure the severity of traffic conflict in practice.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第3期31-36,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(71210001)
关键词
交通冲突
非机动车
回归分析
冲突预测模型
冲突严重程度
traffic conflicts
non-motor vehicle
regression analysis
conflict forecast model
severity of conflicts