深水油气输运耦合风险分析及评价方法研究

Research on method for analyzing and assessing coupling risk in deepwater oil and gas transportation system

为了研究深水输运系统风险耦合作用形式,评价其风险,保障输运系统安全运行,首先以深水输运系统3类风险群为视角,结合系统动力学(SD)原理建立系统风险流图。然后,考虑风险因子间的耦合关系,采用熵值法确定其权重。最后,根据耦合关系建立系统风险非线性耦合模型,计算系统风险群耦合度与风险值。以南海某深水油气田为例进行分析。实例分析结果表明,管内非常规流动风险系统、管外环境风险系统以及管体自身风险系统中,管内非常规流动风险系统的综合风险值最大,管体自身风险系统波动性最大;在双因素耦合下,管体自身风险系统与管内非常规流动风险系统带来的耦合风险最大。

In order to study the coupling form of risk in deepwater oil and gas transport systems, evaluate them and ensure the safety of oil and gas transportation, three types in risk groups of deepwater transport system were considered, and a risk flow diagram of deepwater oil and gas transportation system was build by SD theory. Coupling relationships between the risk factors were examined, and their weights were deter- mined by using the entropy method on the basis of the relationships, then, a nonlinear coupling model was bulit for the risks in the system . The model was used to calculate coupling degrees and the values of the risk groups. A certain deepwater oil and gas field in China was taken as an example. The results show that for the internal non-conventional flow risk system, the external environmental risk system, and the pipelines risk system,the internal non-conventional flow risk system has the highest integrated risk value, and the pipelines risk system gets the largest volatility of two-factor coupling, the risk of coupling between the pipeline risk system and internal non-conventional flow risk system is the greatest.