基于累积前景理论的应急物流路径选择方法

Route selection method for emergency logistics based on cumulative prospect theory

为提高应急物资运输的高效性和可靠性,在充分考虑决策者的主观因素和风险态度后,建立一个基于累积前景理论(CPT)的应急物流路径选择模型。根据应急物流的特点,对CPT模型做了多参考点的延伸。选取物资运送的时间和运量作为模型的2个异质参考点,并在考虑时间可靠性和路径重新构造性的基础上,构建了2个参考点取值的数学模型。在算例部分,为对比决策者不同的风险态度对结果的影响,将决策者分为风险追求型和规避型。算例结果表明,该方法符合实际决策机制,有助于提升救援效率,而且参数的设置对路径前景值有重要影响。

In order to improve the efficiency and reliability of emergency supply transportation,a CPT based model was built after careful consideration of the subjective factors and attitudes of decision makers to risk,for path selection for emergency logistics. Firstly,multiple reference points in the CPT model were expanded according to the features of emergency logistics. Then,travel time and transport volume were selected as two heterogeneous reference points of the model. Two models were built for assuming values to the reference point based on the travel time reliability and the path reconfigurability. Finally,to compare the effects decision makers＇ risk attitude have on the result of decision making,the decision makers were classified into a risk seeking group and a risk avoiding group in a case study. The results of the case study show that the method accords with the actual decision-making mechanism, by which the rescue efficiency will be effectively enhanced. Moreover,parameter setting has a vital impact on the prospect value of the path.