新型城镇化与农业规模化和专业化的协调发展——基于PVAR方法的讨论

Research on the Relationship between New Urbanization and the Scale and Specialization of Agricultural Industry: Based on PVAR Method

本文利用2003—2013年的相关数据,对新型城镇化程度、农村产业规模化程度和农村产业专业化程度进行了测度,并采用PVAR方法研究了三者之间的关系。研究结果表明,新型城镇化程度大致与各省的经济发展程度正相关,满足位于平原地区、地理气候条件较好和传统农业大省等特征的省区农村产业规模化程度较高,新型城镇化与农村产业规模化相互影响、相互促进。而农村产业专业化程度则没有体现出一般规律性,年均变化不大。受到自然条件、区位特点和历史特征的影响,农业产业专业化沿着固有的轨迹发展,各省级行政区新型城镇化和农村产业规模化的发展并没有引起农业产业专业化程度的改变。

In this paper, we use data from tion, the enlargement of rural industry, year 2003--2013 to measure the degree of new urbaniza and the degree of specialization of rural industry, and study the relationship between those factors by using the panel VAR method. The results show that the level of new urbanization level positively related to the level of economic development of the provinces, usually, the provinces which are located in the plain area, enjoy preferable geographic and weather characteristics and are agricultural provinces traditionally have a high level of enlargement of agricultural industry. New urbanization and the large-scale of rural industry promote each other. However, the degree of specialization of agricultural industry is not reflected in the general law, the average value remain unchanged. Due to natural conditions, geographical features and historical characteristics, the agricultural industry specialization developed along the natural path, all provinces＇ degree of agricultural industry specialization didn＇t change for the reason of the development of new urbanization and enlargement of agricultural industry. It is suggested that the new urbanization and large-scale of ru- ral industry should be promoted in order to form benign interaction, and the agricultural industrial specialization should also be promoted in the long term.