中国一次能源消费碳排放变化的驱动因素分析

Analysis on the Driving Factors of Chinese Primary Energy Consumption Carbon Emission Change

文章通过运用IPCC(2006)提供的碳排放量计算公式,计算得出2000~2014年我国及30个省域的一次能源消费产生的碳排放量,并对全国和各省的碳排放量变化情况进行详细分析。运用扩展的Kaya模型和LMDI因素分解法,将2000~2014年全国的碳排放分解为人口效应、经济增长效应、能源强度效应和能源结构效应,并对每一种效应进行详细分析。最终结论:(1)我国2000~2014年间的一次能源消费产生的碳排放总量一直在不断地升高,碳排放形势堪忧,需采取更强力的措施来促进节能减排;(2)全国不同省域之间的排放量差异不断扩大,碳排放主要集中在几个排放大省;(3)驱动我国一次能源消费产生的碳排放量变化的主要因素为经济增长效应和能源强度效应,其中前者对碳排放起拉动作用,而后者是抑制作用。对此,提出了相应的对策建议,以促进减缓碳排放增长,发展低碳经济。

By using the carbon emission calculation formula provided by IPCC（2006）, The carbon emissions from the primary energy consumption in China and 30 provinces during 2000 to 2014 are calculated. And the carbon emissions changes from the national and the provinces are analyzed in detail. Afterwards, based on the extended Kaya model and LMDI factor decomposition method, the national carbon emissions from 2000 to 2014 were decomposed into population effect, economic growth effect, energy intensity effect and energy structure effect and each effect are discussed in detail. The following conclusions can be reached： Firstly, Chinese total amount of carbon emissions from primary energy consumption in the period from 2000 to 2014 has been increasing continuously,which is alarming. More powerful measures are needed to promote energy conservation and emission reduction.Secondly, the differences in emissions among different provinces are expanding, and carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in several provinces. Thirdly, economic growth effect and energy intensity effect are the two main driving factors for carbon emissions changes caused by primary energy consumption, in which the former plays a pulling factor, while the latter is an inhibitory factor. Therefore, several suggestions are offered to promote the slowdown in carbon emissions growth and development of a low carbon economy.