互联网能否提升一国制造业出口复杂度

Will the Internet Improve A Country's Manufacturing Export Sophistication?

文章探讨互联网发展对一国制造业出口复杂度的影响。通过一个基于李嘉图比较优势的简单模型,指出互联网发展可以通过两个机制——信息成本节约效应和人力资本提升效应促进一国制造业出口;由于信息和人力资本密集度差异,这种作用对较高复杂度制造业的影响大于较低复杂度制造业,因而会整体提升一国制造业出口复杂度。利用39个国家1995~2011年互联网用户数和附加值出口贸易数据进行实证,结果显示:一国制造业出口及出口复杂度都与互联网发展水平有显著正相关关系;分组回归发现,互联网发展对高、中复杂度制造业出口有显著正向影响,且对前者作用大于后者,对低复杂度制造业出口则有显著负向影响。

This paper discusses the influence of the Interact on the sophistication of a country＇s manufacturing. Through a simple model based on Rieardian comparative advantage, it indicates that the Internet may promote a country＇s manufacturing exports through two mechanisms, namely Information Cost Saving Effect and Human Capital Promotion Effect. Because of the information and human capital intensity difference, the effect on higher sophisticated manufacturing is greater than that of the lower, so that the country＇s manufacturing export sophistication is promoted. Using the amounts of Internet users and value-added export data of 39 countries from 1995 to 2011, the empirical study shows that a country＇s manufacturing export and its sophistication have a significantly positive correlation with the level of Internet development. Grouping regression shows that, the effect of the interact on high and middle tech manufacturing exports is significantly positive, and the effect of the former is larger than that of the latter. Simultaneously, the Internet has a significantly negative effect on low-tech manufacturing exports. This study is of important implications for China to promote the transformation and upgrading of its industries and exports by making advantage of Internet potential.