行政区划调整与粮食生产:来自合成控制法的证据

Administrative Boundary Adjustment and Grain Production: Evidence from Synthetic Control Methods

行政区划调整是实现区域经济增长和城镇化发展的重要举措,那么行政区划调整是否会对粮食产量产生影响?为此,本文利用2004年江苏省宿豫县实施的撤县设区这一事件作为自然实验,运用合成控制法分析撤县设区对宿豫粮食产量的影响。研究发现:撤县设区政策实施显著降低被撤并县的粮食产量。造成被撤并县粮食产量降低的原因来自政策的实施,并不存在其他偶然因素。撤县设区政策实施主要是通过降低被撤并县粮食播种比例和政府扶持农业力度两条途径对粮食产量产生不利影响。因此,促进城镇化发展的同时需要警惕撤县设区政策实施对农业生产的不利影响。

Administrative boundary adjustment has been proved to be an important measure to achieve regional economic growth and urbanization,and then will the administrative boundary adjustment affect the grain yield?Based on the case of turning Suyu County into a suburban district in Jiangsu P rovince in 2004 as a natural experiment,this paper uses the synthetic control method to measure the effect of turning counties into districts on the grain yield,and uses the method of difference-in-difference model and time and area placebo tests to conduct the robustness test.The results show that turning counties into districts has played a significant negative effect on grain yield and makes the county’s grain yield relative to its potential grain yield drop 169,177 tons^224,512 tons,the average effect being about 27.2%.The robustness test indicates that there are no other accidental factors caused by the decrease of grain yield and turning counties into districts is the main reason which causes the decrease of grain yield.In addition,the mechanism of the effect of the turning counties into districts policy on the grain yield of the county is verified.Turning counties into districts policy has an adverse effect on grain yield mainly by reducing the proportion of grain sowing and government support for agriculture.Therefore,the government should be aware of the adverse effects of the turning counties into district and at the same time promote the development of urbanization.