2012年和2014年东洞庭湖区人群血吸虫感染时空分布及其影响因素分析

Temporal and spatial distribution of Schistosoma infection of population and its risk factors in Eastern Dongting Lake area in 2012 and 2014

目的分析东洞庭湖区2012、2014年人群血吸虫病空间分布变化及其影响因素,为制定有效的干预措施提供参考。方法在东洞庭湖区选取君山区作为研究现场,运用空间自相关分析君山区2012、2014年人群血吸虫病感染率空间分布特征的变化,使用空间回归模型探讨影响人群感染的危险因素。结果 2013年君山区家畜血吸虫感染率低于2011年;2014年君山区人群血吸虫平均感染率降为0.55%;2012年和2014年君山区人群血吸虫感染均存在空间自相关,局部空间自相关分析探测出4个高高聚集村;2012年空间误差模型显示,人群感染率与家畜感染率和易感环境面积呈正相关,而2014年空间滞后模型显示,易感环境面积呈正相关,家畜感染率无统计学意义。结论封洲禁牧和牛羊淘汰措施对防控血吸虫病效果显著,可根据君山区血吸虫病空间分布特征,在东洞庭湖湖区继续实施该措施和开展查螺灭螺工作。

Objective To investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of Schistosoma infection of population and its risk factors in Eastern Dongting Lake area in 2012 and 2014,so as to provide the reference for formulating effective intervention mea-sures. Methods Junshan District was selected as a study field in Eastern Dongting Lake area. The method of spatial autocorre-lation analysis was applied to analyze the change of spatial distribution of Schistosoma infection in Junshan District in 2012 and 2014. The spatial regression model was fitted to detect the risk factors for human infection. Results The livestock infection rate in 2013 was lower than that in 2011. The average infection rate of schistosome was reduced to 0.55%in 2014. The spatial auto-correlation existed on the distribution of schistosomiasis in Junshan District in both 2012 and 2014 and 4 high incidence villages were identified. The results of the spatial error model showed that the prevalence of human infection was positively correlated with the infection rate of the livestock and the area of the susceptible environment in 2012. The spatial lag model showed that the prevalence of human schistosomiasis was positively correlated with the area of the susceptible environment ,but not with the in-fection rate of livestock. Conclusion The measures involving grazing prohibition and phasing out cattle and sheep are remark-ably effective and should continue on the basis of the current spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in this area.